As a part of the research carried out by Ricardo, the impacts of various lower-carbon metal uptake eventualities throughout the automotive sector have been modelled. The “Baseline” state of affairs is knowledgeable by publicly accessible automotive OEM targets, each to be used of lower-carbon metal and wider decarbonisation of manufacturing provide chains. As such, the Baseline state of affairs has a gradual enhance of lower-carbon metal from an preliminary share of 15% of complete home metal demand in 2020 to 100% by 2050 (when it’s assumed all metal will have to be decarbonised consistent with EU long-term local weather targets), reaching 25% and 57% lower-carbon metal shares by 2030 and 2035 respectively. An “Formidable” state of affairs was developed consistent with the very best proposed uptake of inexperienced metal within the automotive sector by OEMs, with lower-carbon manufacturing pathways reaching roughly 50% of complete metal demand by 2030, 88% by 2035, near-100% by 2040, and 100% by 2050.
As well as, a “Typical”, or ‘do-nothing’ state of affairs was developed, assuming that the share of automotive metal produced from major BF-BOF and secondary EAF manufacturing applied sciences stay fixed between 2020 and 2050 at 85% and 15% respectively.
The lower-carbon metal shares assumed within the totally different eventualities are cut up between totally different technological pathways, as mentioned in Part 2 and the Annex and are defined beneath.
Secondary EAF metal is assumed to make up 15% of home automotive metal demand in 2020, after which it’s assumed that, by 2050, all scrap metal from the automotive sector is reprocessed in an EAF to supply recycled metal, satisfying 37% of complete automotive metal demand by 2050. Beneath each the Baseline and Formidable eventualities, Secondary EAF metal is projected to make up 19% of demand in 2030 and simply over 30% in 2035. Ricardo additionally developed a excessive secondary EAF uptake state of affairs, which assumes that automotive demand reaches 27% in 2030, 44% in 2035 and 48% by 2050, consultant of the present Secondary EAF share of European metal manufacturing capability.
Main inexperienced metal shares for every state of affairs are knowledgeable by the projected volumes of lower-carbon metal demand from the automotive sector from publicly introduced OEM provide agreements (see Appendix 1 – Bulletins made by automotive OEMs in Ricardo research). Inexperienced H2-DRI is predicted to be the dominant lower-carbon metal manufacturing pathway, making up round 80% of at the moment introduced automotive metal demand by 2030. Beneath the Formidable state of affairs, Inexperienced H2-DRI metal is assumed to make up 25% of complete metal in vehicles by 2030, 50% by 2035 and near 60% by 2040, remaining steady till 2050.
Not one of the gray H2 or pure gasoline (NG)-DRI manufacturing pathways are assumed to contribute to lower-carbon automotive metal as these pathways have restricted automotive demand (8% of introduced quantity by 2030); are broadly considered as a transition expertise between present manufacturing and Inexperienced H-DR; and have variable and really restricted emission discount potential (see Part 2 and Annex). Equally, as no automotive OEM provide bulletins point out demand for using CCS expertise together with both the BF-BOF pathway (Blue BF-BOF) or the hydrogen DR-EAF (Blue H2-DRI) pathway, along with their extremely questionable local weather advantages, these applied sciences additionally don’t characteristic within the automotive metal demand eventualities between 2020-2050.
The remainder of the metal uptake underneath the Formidable state of affairs that’s not both secondary EAF or Inexperienced H2-DRI is assumed to come back from imports. In 2022, imported metal made up 9% of complete European metal consumption. As the vast majority of introduced lower-carbon metal manufacturing capability and automotive metal provide agreements are concentrated inside Europe, it’s assumed that imported metal from exterior the EU27 continues to be dominantly produced by way of the first BF-BOF route as much as 2050. As a result of introduction of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026, demand for imported metal with the next carbon depth is predicted to say no, nevertheless. As such, it’s assumed that the automotive sector reduces its share of imported metal by half to 4.5% in 2050.
