Elon Musk stated as we speak that Tesla will double its electrical car manufacturing within the US within the subsequent two years.
What would that appear to be? Let’s do the mathematics.
Right now, throughout a press convention to advertise Tesla on the White Home, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated the next:
“As a perform of the nice insurance policies of President Trump and his administration, and as an act of religion in America, Tesla goes to double car output in america inside the subsequent two years.”
This raises many questions, as Musk’s phrasing of the assertion means that Tesla is planning so as to add beforehand unannounced manufacturing capability in response to Trump’s insurance policies.
Nonetheless, the truth could possibly be totally different.
What’s Tesla’s present manufacturing capability within the US?
We solely know Tesla’s put in capability, which is far totally different than its precise manufacturing price.
That is Tesla’s newest disclosed international manufacturing capability on the finish of 2024:
| Area | Mannequin | Capability | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | Mannequin S / Mannequin X | 100,000 | Manufacturing |
| Mannequin 3 / Mannequin Y | >550,000 | Manufacturing | |
| Shanghai | Mannequin 3 / Mannequin Y | >950,000 | Manufacturing |
| Berlin | Mannequin Y | >375,000 | Manufacturing |
| Texas | Mannequin Y | >250,000 | Manufacturing |
| Cybertruck | >125,000 | Manufacturing | |
| Cybercab | — | In improvement | |
| Nevada | Tesla Semi | — | Pilot manufacturing |
| TBD | Roadster | — | In improvement |
Within the US, it provides as much as 1,025,000 automobiles per 12 months.
In actuality, Tesla’s factories are working at a a lot decrease capability.
Based mostly on gross sales and stock from 2024, Tesla is at present constructing fewer than 50,000 Mannequin S/X automobiles per 12 months in comparison with an put in capability of 100,000 items.
As for Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y, Tesla is at present constructing them within the US at a price of about 600,000 items per 12 months in comparison with claimed put in capability of over 800,000 items.
Lastly, the Cybertruck is being produced at a price of lower than 50,000 items per 12 months in comparison with an put in capability of over 125,000 items.
This provides as much as Tesla producing 700,000 items per 12 months within the US in 2024.
What can be Tesla’s new capability?
Contemplating Musk talked about that it’s going to occur “inside the subsequent two years”, it’s unlikely that he’s referring to put in capability.
The CEO is probably speaking about Tesla’s precise manufacturing, which might additionally make sense, particularly contemplating he talked about “output.”
Tesla at present outputs roughly 700,000 automobiles per 12 months within the US.
Doubling that might imply bringing the whole to 1.4 million items per 12 months, which might be an unimaginable feat, but it surely’s not fully a brand new plan for Tesla.
First off, Tesla has already introduced plans to unveil two new, extra reasonably priced fashions this 12 months. These fashions are going to be constructed on the identical manufacturing strains as Mannequin 3/Y, which might probably allow Tesla to completely make the most of its put in capability for these automobiles.
That’s one other 200,000 items already.
As already talked about in Tesla’s put in capability desk, the corporate is at present growing its manufacturing facility for the Tesla Semi electrical truck in Nevada.
Manufacturing is predicted to begin later this 12 months and ramp up subsequent 12 months. Tesla has beforehand talked about a objective of fifty,000 items per 12 months. It could go away Tesla roughly a 12 months and half to ramp as much as this capability, which is formidable, however not unimaginable.
Then there’s the “Cybercab”, which was unveiled final 12 months.
The Cybercab goes to make use of Tesla’s next-gen car platform and new manufacturing system, which is already being deployed at Gigafactory Texas.
Manufacturing is predicted to begin in 2026, and Musk has talked about a manufacturing capability of “at the very least 2 million items per 12 months”. Nonetheless, he stated that this could probably come from a couple of manufacturing unit and it’s unclear if the opposite manufacturing unit could be within the US.
Both means, Tesla would wish to ramp up Cybercab manufacturing within the US to 450,000 items to make Musk’s announcement appropriate.
It’s honest to notice that each one of this was a part of Tesla’s plans earlier than the US elections, Trump’s coming into energy, or the implementation of any insurance policies in any way.
Electrek’s Take
Based mostly on my evaluation, this announcement is nothing new. It’s only a reiteration of Elon’s plans for Tesla within the US, which had been established lengthy earlier than Trump got here to energy and even earlier than Elon formally backed Trump.
It’s simply extra “company puffery” as Elon’s attorneys would say.
Additionally, if I wasn’t clear, we’re solely speaking about manufacturing right here. I doubt Tesla may have the demand for that, particularly if Elon stays concerned with the corporate.
The Cybercab doesn’t actually have a steering wheel, and if Tesla doesn’t resolve self-driving, will probably be arduous to justify producing 450,000 items per 12 months.
