Throughout a wierd publicly livestreamed “all-hands” assembly, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated as soon as once more that he’s engaged on a “Grasp Plan Half 4” for the corporate, which is at the moment on half 3 of its grasp plan. However the issue is, even half 2 just isn’t but full.
Tesla’s “grasp plans” have guided the corporate for years, exhibiting a normal define of what route it plans to go.
The primary installment of Tesla’s grasp plan was posted in 2006, titled “The Secret Tesla Motors Grasp Plan (simply between you and me)” (it has since been deleted from the web site).
The weblog put up was a tongue in cheek listing of Tesla’s priorities for the longer term, with 4 steps laid out:
- Construct sports activities automotive.
- Use that cash to construct an inexpensive automotive.
- Use that cash to construct an much more inexpensive automotive.
- Whereas doing above, additionally present zero-emission electrical energy era choices.
Tesla managed to complete all of these steps, by releasing the Roadster, Mannequin S, and Mannequin 3. It additionally bought SolarCity and sells photo voltaic panel installations as we speak, so, job accomplished. And accomplished fairly properly, contemplating Tesla was nothing in 2006 and hadn’t offered a single automotive, and is now a worldwide powerhouse altering all the auto business.
Ten years after that unique weblog put up, the “plan” was up to date in 2016 with “Grasp Plan, Half Deux” (which has additionally since been deleted from the web site). That plan was summarized as:
- Create gorgeous photo voltaic roofs with seamlessly built-in battery storage
- Develop the electrical car product line to deal with all main segments
- Develop a self-driving functionality that’s 10X safer than guide by way of huge fleet studying
- Allow your automotive to earn a living for you whenever you aren’t utilizing it
This plan has not been fairly as profitable as the unique secret grasp plan.
A progress verify on grasp plan half 2
First, Tesla’s “photo voltaic roof” enterprise has turned extra into the corporate offering photo voltaic panel programs to impartial installers. These are built-in properly by means of software program with Tesla’s Powerwall system (and extra options like Digital Energy Vegetation, Storm Watch, and so forth). However Tesla’s photo voltaic roof undertaking didn’t fairly end up as deliberate – it’s a single design as an alternative of the 4 designs initially promised, and deployment of that design was… rocky, to say the least.
Second, Tesla has expanded its product line to cowl two (or three) extra segments: mid-size SUVs, with the Mannequin Y; one thing kinda sorta approximating a truck, with the Cybertruck; and heavy trucking, with the Tesla Semi.
These are the “main” segments it stated it might deal with within the weblog put up, so that they get partial credit score there – besides that the Semi remains to be but to achieve any important quantity numbers, and Tesla has not launched a promised “excessive passenger-density city transport” (the closest factor there may be the recently-announced Robovan, which is completely nowhere close to manufacturing).
Third, Tesla has not efficiently deployed self-driving functionality that’s 10X safer, even by its personal numbers. Tesla’s Autopilot Security Report, which the corporate solely often releases, says that Autopilot is a little more than 5X safer than a human – however this comes with the caveat that the system will usually spend extra time activated in conditions the place it’s extra succesful, and drivers will select to take over after they assume the system isn’t going to have the ability to do one thing.
Tesla doesn’t publicize information on how a lot safer FSD is than human drivers, somewhat referring to “miles between important disengagement” and different transferring goalposts.
So these are three steps which haven’t actually gotten completed, however, we are able to maybe give some credit score for motion within the route of every of them.
The fourth step, nonetheless, has merely not occurred. This referred to an thought which on the time was known as “Tesla Community,” which was purported to be a ride-hailing app that Tesla homeowners may ship their automobiles out to earn a living with – and the supply of Musk’s “appreciating asset” feedback.
Not solely has that not occurred, however even autonomy has not occurred. Tesla FSD remains to be stage 2, and whereas it claims it’s going to have stage 4 succesful autos this yr in Austin, we’ve but to see that.
So, partial credit score for grasp plan half 2, however we’re nonetheless in progress.
Half 3 goes in one other route, is large in scope
After that, Tesla launched Grasp Plan Half 3 in 2023, a wholly totally different kind of doc than the final two. As an alternative of simply being a snarky weblog put up, this was a 40-page white paper with calculations exhibiting that the world may transition to renewable power and clear up local weather change with the sources and know-how accessible to us as we speak.
It’s an fascinating learn, and regardless of the bizarre analogues to Musk’s private beliefs about inhabitants development, the calculations, whereas optimistic and self-serving for an EV/sustainable tech firm, do make sense. It lays out the case about the right way to transition all the world to sustainability, and I believe it does so fairly persuasively. I’ve advisable it to many as a solution to lay out the potential inexperienced transition.
…However, clearly, that has not occurred but both.
Musk drops hints at Tesla Grasp Plan 4
Then, with two plans nonetheless in progress, and solely a bit greater than a yr after unveiling the third half, Musk introduced final June that he’s “engaged on Tesla Grasp Plan 4.”
9 months later, we’ve but to listen to extra particulars about that concept, however as we speak throughout his presentation, he did refer again to it once more.
Right now, he was requested a query by one of many… uh… workers? assembled for his… uh… all-hands assembly/inventory pumping livestream?, and the query went thusly (the query was exhausting to listen to, so right here’s the meat of it):
“What section of the plan are we in and the way lengthy will it go?”
To which Musk responded:
“We’re at section 3 of the grasp plan, since grasp plan 1 and a pair of have been accomplished. Now, grasp plan half 3 is a really lengthy grasp plan, as a result of it’s mainly making all power on earth sustainable. And I truly have to complement it with the, kind of, abundance for all.” Possibly thats grasp plan 4. I’ve kinda described grasp plan 4 basically. Which is autonomous automobiles, autonomous humanoid robots, mix that with photo voltaic and battery storage, and I believe the longer term’s gonna be unimaginable.”
So, we now have an thought of what Musk thinks grasp plan half 4 shall be, a minimum of, which has similarities to what Electrek’s Fred Lambert predicted it might be again in June: robots and self-driving.
Electrek’s Take
However what about them? We all know that is what Musk has been speaking about just lately, and lots of these concepts haven’t actually turned out – a minimum of not but.
Initially, we already know concerning the photo voltaic and battery storage, and the autonomous automobiles. These have been in earlier components of the grasp plan, and Musk has been promising them subsequent yr for ten years, so there’s nothing new there.
Specifically, the autonomous automotive reaches all the best way again to half 2, initiated in 2016, and remains to be incomplete – regardless of Musk’s incorrect assertion as we speak saying that it has been accomplished. This both suggests he doesn’t know what’s going on together with his firm, or he’s mendacity. Neither is a superb choice.
And robots, the one new portion of the proposed grasp plan half 4, are undoubtedly not fairly what they’re cracked as much as be – but, a minimum of. However that’s the purpose of a grasp plan, to start out heading in that route, to not already be there – so, honest sufficient.
However are Musk’s predictions about robotics lifelike?
Musk has additionally said that humanoid robots shall be value $20-30 trillion to Tesla’s market cap, as a result of everybody on this planet may have two private robots. This appears unlikely on its face, however particularly so when Musk says that AGI – Synthetic Basic Intelligence, the place a single pc is able to carrying out all the identical duties as a human – is coming this yr.
Past AGI, Musk has claimed that Tesla will change the world in a number of different methods this yr, however thats fairly a packed launch schedule given Tesla’s current historical past (and its management’s present distractions and anti-sustainability actions). Musk is thought for overpromising, and this appears like one other instance of such.
The concept that Tesla, a automotive firm, will one way or the other be the primary on this planet to perform AGI, scaling humanoid robots to the purpose the place everybody on this planet can have two, alongside all the pieces else, and on such a brief timeline, appears unlikely.
It appears maybe a little bit extra seemingly that this assembly, and a possible half 4 of the plan, are each an try to reframe the present dialog about Tesla, which is kind of damaging as gross sales drop drastically amid Musk’s meddling in anti-sustainability and white supremacist politics.
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